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ChristianKl comments on Rationality Quotes December 2014 - Less Wrong
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Did you read what you linked to?
Where is the counterexample? Success refers to an abstract concept. Luck and success are different things. Luck usually contributes to success, but luck usually implies undeserved success. So successful people get lucky, but on average everybody gets lucky sometimes. The quote encourages people to focus on the things in which luck plays a minor factor. That's what intelligence is for, intelligence is not for optimizing luck.
And yes, that does make it tautological. So what?
But not everybody wins sometimes the lottery.
Is that supposed to be funny? The fact that you have a computer means you have won something. I'd be willing to guess that more technologies will emerge and you'll use them. That's like winning a lottery. But you don't get more successful unless you make intelligent decisions. Stupid decisions are punished, there are exceptions to this...
But seriously, lottery is a loaded term. It's often used as a metaphor for 'capitalist trick' (which smart people avoid).
The idea that thing average out depend on the assumption of success being due to a lot of independent events.
Computer simulations of markets with trades of equal skill have no problem to produce the kind of difference in financial results that the traders we observe in reality produce.
The fact that some authors write books that are more popular than the book of other authors is explainable without difference in skill or book quality.
in a Pickwickian sense everybody does, only their payoffs varies