Let's suppose you start with $1000 to invest, and the only thing you can invest it in is stock ABC. You are only permitted to occupy two states:
* All assets in cash
* All assets in stock ABC
You incur a $2 transaction fee every time you buy or sell.
Kind of annoying limitations to operate under. But you have a powerful advantage as well. You have a perfect crystal ball that each day gives you the [probability density function](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_density_function) of ABC's closing price for the following day (but no further ahead in time).
What would be an optimal decision rule for when to buy and sell?
You need to define "optimal" in the "optimal decision rule".
Generally speaking, it depends on your utility function (and/or your risk tolerance) and on your time horizon. The shape of the PDF is also pretty important.
Let's suppose you start with $1000 to invest, and the only thing you can invest it in is stock ABC. You are only permitted to occupy two states:
* All assets in cash
* All assets in stock ABC
You incur a $2 transaction fee every time you buy or sell.
Kind of annoying limitations to operate under. But you have a powerful advantage as well. You have a perfect crystal ball that each day gives you the [probability density function](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_density_function) of ABC's closing price for the following day (but no further ahead in time).
What would be an optimal decision rule for when to buy and sell?