RobbBB comments on A forum for researchers to publicly discuss safety issues in advanced AI - Less Wrong
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When Marcus Hutter attempted to translate his intuitions about optimal intelligence into an equation, he was moving from philosophy to mathematics. You could say that Yudkowsky's initial objections to AIXI were then a step backwards, into more philosophical / informal questions: 'Can an equation distill the essence of intelligence without distilling the essence of efficient search?' 'Can true intelligence be unreflective?' (Of course, both Hutter and Yudkowsky were making their proposals and criticisms with an eye toward engineering applications; talking about concrete examples like the anvil problem is more likely to be productive than talking about 'true essences'. The real import of 'the essence of intelligence' is how useful and illuminating a framework is for mathematical and engineering progress.)
In practice, then, progress toward engineering can involve moving two steps forward, then one (or two, or three) steps back. The highest-value things MIRI can do right now mostly involving moving toward mathematics -- including better formalizing the limitations of the AIXI equation, and coming up with formally specified alternatives -- but that's probably not true of all Friendly AI questions, and it doesn't mean we should never take a step back and reassess whether our formal accomplishments represent actual progress toward our informal goals.
So who, in (contemporary, analytical) philosophy talks about true essences?
But that's inefficient. It's wasted effort to quantify what doesn't work conceptually. It may be impossible to always get the conceptual stage right first time, but one can adopt a policy of getting it as firm as possible...rather than a policy of cpnnitatiinally associating conceptual analysis with "semantics", "true essences" and other bad things, and going straight to maths.
I would have thought that the highest value work is work that is relevant to systems that exist, or will argue in the near future. ...but what I see is a lot of work on AIXI (not computably tractable), Bayes (ditto), goal stable agents (no one knows how to build one).
David Oderberg. Thus the danger of asking rhetorical questions.
How is that relevant?
Writing your intuitions up in a formal, precise way can often help you better understand what they are, and whether they're coherent. It's a good way to inspire new ideas and spot counter-intuitive relationships between old ones, and it's also a good way to do a sanity check on an entire framework. So I don't think steering clear of math and logic notation is a particularly good way to enhance the quality of philosophical thought; I think it's frequently more efficient to quickly test your ideas' coherence and univocality.
It's relevant to my preference for factually based critique.
Indeed. I was talking about quantification, not formalisation.
'Formalization' and mathematical logic is closer to what MIRI has in mind when it says 'mathematics'. See http://intelligence.org/research-guide.
The argument is that AIXI and Bayes assume infinite computing power, and thus simplify the problem by allowing you to work on it without needing to consider computing power limitations. If you can't solve the easier form of the problem where you're allowed infinite computing power, you definitely can't solve the harder real-world version either, so you should start with the easier problem first.
But the difference between infinity and any finite value is infinity . Intelligence itself, or a substantial subset if it, is easy, given infinite resources, as AIXI shows. But that's been of no use in developing real world AI: tractable approximations to AIXI aren't powerful enough to be dangerous.
It would be embarrassing to MIRI if someone cobbled together AI smart enough to be dangerous, and came to the worlds experts on AI safety for some safety features, only to be told "sorry guys, we haven't got anything that's compatible with your system, because it's finite".
What's high value again?
It's arguably been useful in building models of AI safety. To quote Exploratory Engineering in AI:
I feel as though you're engaging in pedantry for pedantry's sake. The point is that if we can't even solve the simplified version of the problem, there's no way we're going to solve the hard version--effectively, it's saying that you have to crawl before you can walk. Your response was to point out that walking is more useful than crawling, which is really orthogonal to the problem here--the problem being, of course, the fact that we haven't even learned to crawl yet. AIXI and Bayes are useful in that solving AGI problems in the context provided can act as a "stepping stone" to larger and bigger problems. What are you suggesting as an alternative? That MIRI tackle the bigger problems immediately? That's not going to work.
You are still assuming that infinite systems count as simple versions of real world finite systems, but that is the assumption I am challenging: our best real world AIs aren't cut down AIXI systems, they are something different entirely, so there is no linear progression from crawling to walking in your terms,
That's not just an assumption; that's the null hypothesis, the default position. Sure, you can challenge it if you want, but if you do, you're going to have to provide some evidence why you think there's going to be a qualitative difference. And even if there is some such difference, it's still unlikely that we're going to get literally zero insights about the problem from studying AIXI. That's an extremely strong absolute claim, and absolute claims are almost always false. Ultimately, if you're going to criticize MIRI's approach, you need to provide some sort of plausible alternative, and right now, unfortunately, it doesn't seem like there are any. As far as I can tell, AIXI is the best way to bet.
I have already pointed out that the best AI systems currently existing are not cut down infinite systems.
Something doesn't have to be completely worthless to be sub optimal.
I think you've got this backward. Conceptual understanding comes from formal understanding--not the other way around. First, you lay out the math in rigorous fashion with no errors. Then you do things with the math--very carefully. Only then do you get to have a good conceptual understanding of the problem. That's just the way these things work; try finding a good theory of truth dating from before we had mathematical logic. Trying for conceptual understanding before actually formalizing the problem is likely to be as ineffectual as going around in the eighteenth century talking about "phlogiston" without knowing the chemical processes behind combustion.
You need a certain kind of conceptual understanding in place to know whether a formal investigation is worthwhile or relevant.
Example