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What's going on here is ambiguity between median date and median interval. (And I'm fairly sure Gary Marcus is talking about the median interval rather than the median date.)
Yes. If the median interval is 20 years, then the median date is not 20 years from today (modulo weird hypothetical data sets which I don't think we actually have).
I think Gary's aware that the median interval has always been 20 years. But when he says this:
It sounds like he's saying that the median date is 20 years from today. I guess ... (read more)