Vilx- comments on Welcome to Less Wrong! (7th thread, December 2014) - Less Wrong
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Well, if you put it this way, it is almost impossible to find a counterexample, because for literally any situation where "a person X did Y", you can say "that's because X somehow believed Y will bring them most pleasure / least pain", and even if I say "but in this specific situation that doesn't make any sense", you can say "well, this is one of those situations when X was totally wrong".
Better approach than "can you find a situation that my theory cannot explain?" is "can you find a situation that my theory cannot predict?" The difference between explanation and prediction is that explanation is what you do after the fact, when you already know which outcome you need to explain, while predictions are done before the fact. For example, if in the next American elections the Democrats will win, I can explain you why. However, if Republicans will win, I can also explain you why. But if you ask me to predict who will win, then I am in trouble, because here my verbal skills cannot save me.
Analogically, if we have a situation "Joe spends his afternoon reading Reddit", it is easy to explain: Joe believed that reading Reddit will bring him most pleasure. But if we have a situation "Joe decided not to read Reddit, and instead learned a new programming language", it is also easy to explain: Joe believed that learning will bring him most pleasure in long term. The problem is if Joe is starting his computer right now, and your theory has to predict whether he will read Reddit (as he usually does, but not always), or whether he will learn a new programming language (which is what he procrastinated doing for a long time, but today he feels slightly more motivated than usually). What will Joe do? This is the difficult question. But once he does something, it will be extremely easy to explain in hindsight why did he choose this option, instead of the other option.
More info here: Making beliefs pay rent. But the general idea is: if your theory can explain anything, but predict nothing, what exactly is the point of having such theory?
Ahh, I see. Thank you! This is exactly what I was looking for! :) Back to thinking. :)