RobbBB comments on [Link] The Dominant Life Form In the Cosmos Is Probably Superintelligent Robots - Less Wrong

2 Post author: Gunnar_Zarncke 20 December 2014 12:28PM

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Comment author: [deleted] 22 December 2014 06:12:50AM 4 points [-]

The Great Filter provides no explanation here. There are four options: early filter, late filter, multiple (early and late) filters, and no filters. In the first three cases the existence of early filters is explanation for an empty sky. (We are getting very close to the capability to build von Neuman probes though, so I'm not sure an o sky is evidence for a late filter.) In the case of no filter however, we can expect that any intelligence would start expanding into the universe at near the speed of light. So the fact that our light cone doesn't contain other intelligences, so far as we can see, is also consistent with no filter. An observation which is evidence for a proposition being both true and false doesn't provide any useful evidence.

Comment author: RobbBB 24 December 2014 07:34:27AM 5 points [-]

In the 'there's no filter, and colonization bubbles just expand too rapidly for other organisms to get advance warning' scenario, there's a fairly small window of time between 'the first organisms evolve' and 'no more organisms evolve ever again'. But in the absence of an early filter, that small window should occur early in the universe's lifespan, not late. The fact that we live in an old universe suggests that there must be an early filter of some sort (particularly if colonization is easy).

Comment author: [deleted] 28 December 2014 04:31:01PM 0 points [-]

The universe is a big, big place. It also becomes isolated relatively fast due to accelerating inflationary effects. There will probably be many intelligences out there even our most distant descendants will never meet.

Ultimately though you're making assumptions about the prior distribution of intelligent life which isn't warranted with a sample size of 1.

Comment author: lavalamp 04 January 2015 04:36:54PM 1 point [-]

An extremely low prior distribution of life is an early great filter.