If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
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Instead of "unknown" pick a number. What the percentage that you believe it would work? Then go and calculate expected payoffs based on the price.
When I think about it I end up with a bad drake equation for both the 'win' and the 'outcome payoff'. In the drake equation you get to start off with the number of planets in the universe.
When you win is also interesting. Being revived 1 year after death should be worth more then 1m years after death.