dthunt comments on CFAR in 2014: Continuing to climb out of the startup pit, heading toward a full prototype - Less Wrong

61 Post author: AnnaSalamon 26 December 2014 03:33PM

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Comment author: [deleted] 28 December 2014 01:05:46PM 9 points [-]

CFAR seems to many of us to be among the efforts most worth investing in. This isn’t because our present workshops are all that great. Rather, it is because, in terms of “saving throws” one can buy for a humanity that may be navigating tricky situations in an unknown future, improvements to thinking skill seem to be one of the strongest and most robust.

Why? You tend to be marketing your workshops to people who've already got significant training in much of Traditional Rationality. In my view, much of the world's irrationality comes from people who have not even heard of the basics or people whose resource constraints do not allow them to apply what they know, or both. In this model, broad improvements in very fundamental, schoolchild-level rationality education and the alleviation of poverty and time poverty are much stronger prospects for improving the world through prevention of Dumb Moves than giving semi-advanced cognitive self-improvement workshops to the Silicon Valley elite.

Mind, if what you're really trying to do is propagandize the kind of worldview that leads to taking MIRI seriously, you rather ought to come out and say that.

Comment author: dthunt 28 December 2014 04:12:54PM 1 point [-]

I'm kind of curious; what do you think CFAR's objective is 5 years from now (assuming they get the data they want and it strongly supports the value of the workshops)?

Comment author: [deleted] 28 December 2014 09:08:17PM 3 points [-]

what do you think CFAR's objective is 5 years from now (assuming they get the data they want and it strongly supports the value of the workshops)?

In all sincerity, I don't actually know, and am very open to developing an opinion when I get actual information. I reread TFA, and it doesn't seem to say. It does come out and state that "CFAR is one of the efforts most worth investing in", but it doesn't say how that worth will manifest itself within any bounded time period at all.