homunq comments on CFAR in 2014: Continuing to climb out of the startup pit, heading toward a full prototype - Less Wrong
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Actually, no, that's not what I mean. I have no problems with numerical estimates in general.
What I mean by "credible", in this context, is "shown to be relevant to real-life situations" and "supported by empirical data".
You've constructed a model. You've played with this model and have an idea of how it behaves in different regimes. That's all fine. But then you imply that this model reflects the real world and it's at this point that I start to get sceptical and ask for evidence. Not evidence of how your model works, but evidence that the map matches the territory.
(small note: the sentence you quote from me was unclear. "because" related to "presume", not "saying". But your response to what I accidentally said is still largely cogent in relation to what I meant to say, so the miscommunication isn't important. Still, I've corrected the original. Future readers: lumifer quoted me correctly.)