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wnoise comments on The Affect Heuristic - Less Wrong

37 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 27 November 2007 07:58AM

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Comment author: wnoise 13 March 2010 06:43:40PM *  4 points [-]

The conclusion, while ridiculous, is not too misleading in practice. 100 is the right order of magnitude that one would expect to have to play to get one -- the expected time of the first reward is 100, and it does have an expected return of 1 after 100 times. Of course, it only has a 63.4% chance of getting at least one after 100 times.

Comment author: simplicio 13 March 2010 07:22:05PM 6 points [-]

Oh, certainly. I wouldn't expect somebody to calculate that in their head; what amused me is not that he thought that he ought to get it within 100 tries, but that he expected to get it on the 100th try.