Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on The Affect Heuristic - Less Wrong
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I wasn't trying to say the rest of the planet is stupid. I'm saying that "probability" is a more difficult concept than it seems. E.g. Mr. Spock predicts a 98% chance of the Enterprise being destroyed, and he does this twenty times and it never happens once. That's the scriptwriter's concept of what the word "probability" means, and it's very closely related to the jellybean problem.