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Nominull3 comments on The Affect Heuristic - Less Wrong

37 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 27 November 2007 07:58AM

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Comment author: Nominull3 27 November 2007 05:15:06PM 0 points [-]

Probability is a "more difficult concept than it seems", you say, but in what sense is it difficult? It does not require a vast and complex formalism to avoid the sort of error we see in the jellybean problem, so clearly it is not an inherently difficult error to avoid. If it is a "difficult concept", then, it's difficult because our brains are fundamentally not wired to deal with it appropriately, which is a failure of the brain, or colloquially a "stupidity".