Doug_S. comments on The Affect Heuristic - Less Wrong
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See also: Straw Vulcan, MillionToOneChance
Spock is half right; the reason the Enterprise isn't destroyed is the MillionToOneChance effect that, in fiction, makes what would otherwise be objectively improbable outcomes more likely because they make for a better story. Spock's just not smart enough to realize that the reason that the Enterprise never does get destroyed is that he's a character in TV show. ;)
On the other hand, maybe he's just afraid of the consequences of breaking the fourth wall...