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Chris comments on The Affect Heuristic - Less Wrong

37 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 27 November 2007 07:58AM

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Comment author: Chris 27 November 2007 06:55:38PM 0 points [-]

Statistics is actually fun, as the notion of probability is so non-intuitive. There's a 1 in 6 chance of throwing a deuce. What does that mean in the real world ? Well, if I throw the die 6 times, it should come up once ? euh no... Well if I throw 100 sequences of 6 throws I can predict the number of times the deuce will show up ? euh, no.... Well, if I throw 1000 runs of 100 sequences of 6 throws...... sorry, you still don't know one damn thing about what the result will be. So what does probability mean ? It's great ! One of life's rich prizes is to watch someone making a prediction on a particular instance based on statistical reasoning.