gwern comments on Rationality Quotes January 2015 - Less Wrong
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So, do you know offhand exactly how many soldiers were killed by other soldiers in all those conflicts? Do you know how fast and effective those weapons were? Do you know what the distribution and skew of killings per soldier are and how that changes from conflict to conflict? You do not know any of those factors, all of which together determine whether the Marshall estimate is plausible.
'Marshall made everything up' is a good argument. 'Look, there's lots of dead soldiers!' is a terrible argument which is pure rhetoric.
Ceteris is never paribus. You're just digging yourself in deeper. Those conflicts were completely different - WWII and Vietnam, seriously? You can't think of any reasons artillery might have different results in them?
Ok, I sit corrected.