You don't know it was a Poisson distribution (there are lots of distributions natural phenomena follow; the negative binomial and lognormal also pop up a lot in human contexts),
The Poisson distribution is the distribution that models rare independent events. Given how involved you are with prediction and statistics, I'd expect you to know that.
The Poisson distribution is the distribution that models rare independent events.
Are number of fighter pilot victories, clearly, a priori, going to be independent events? That a pilot shooting down one plane is entirely independent of whether they go on to shoot down another plane? (Think about the other two distributions I mentioned and why they might be better matches...)
Distributions are model assumptions, to be checked like any other. In fact, often they are the most important and questionable assumption made in a model, which determines the conclus...
It is the beginning of a new year, and time for the beginning of a new rationality quotes thread.
The rules are: