Are number of fighter pilot victories, clearly, a priori, going to be independent events?
Rolf addressed that point:
That is even before taking into account pilot skill, which for all we know has a very wide range.
In particular notice that any deviations from Poisson are going to be in the direction that makes Rolf's argument even stronger.
In particular notice that any deviations from Poisson are going to be in the direction that makes Rolf's argument even stronger.
No, they're not, not without even more baseless assumptions. The Poisson is not well-justified, and it's not even conservative for Rolf's argument. If there was a selection process in which the best pilots get to combat the most (a shocking proposition, I realize); then many more would cross the threshold of at least 1 kill than would be predicted if one incorrectly modeled kill rates as Poissons with averages. This is the sort...
It is the beginning of a new year, and time for the beginning of a new rationality quotes thread.
The rules are: