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Lumifer comments on How much does consumption affect production? - Less Wrong
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If I had no empirical data, I would not be making any guesses in this case.
The "single chicken" case is below the noise floor. Empirically speaking, the consequences are undetectable. And for "many chicken", how many matters -- I don't think there is a straightforward linear case here.
OK so you have no prior for large cases, you have no prior about the relationship between large cases and small cases, and your guess for small cases is "zero impact".
My prior for large cases is 1:1 impact, my prior is that the impact in large cases is proportionally similar to the impact in small cases, and therefore my prior for small cases is 1:1 impact.
Let's be clear about distinguishing between the map and the territory. To what do your priors apply?