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tog comments on Graphical Assumption Modeling - Less Wrong
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Thanks, I think this may be a valuable direction to pursue.
The error-tracking for multiplication in Fermilab seems like it's probably wrong. But I don't think there's an easy fix, since products of Gaussian distributions aren't Gaussian. Since multiplication is more common than addition in Fermi estimates, you might replace your distributions with log-normals (this is what I do when tracking uncertainty in back-of-the-envelope calculations), but I agree that monte carlo simulations are really the way to go.
Do you think you'd use this out of interest Owen?
Maybe, if it had good enough UI and enough features?
I feel like it's quite a narrow-target/high-bar to compete with back-of-the-envelope/whiteboard at one end (for ease of use), and a software package that does monte carlos properly at the other end.