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devas comments on 2014 Survey Results - Less Wrong
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Comments (279)
I think the computer games question has to do with tribal identity-people who love a particularly well known game might be more inclined to list it as being the best seller ever and put down higher confidence because they love it so much.
Kind of like owners of Playstations and Xboxs will debate the superiority of their technical specs regardless of whether they're superior or not.
I think the computer games result has to do with it being a bad question. There are many legitimate answers depending on how you interpret the question, including my answer that Minesweeper sells as a bundle with Windows and thus has probably sold more copies than anything else.
Is it really a "bad question"? Shouldn't a good calibrator be able to account for model error?
Depends on whether you consider "being able to comprehensively understand questions that may be misleading" to be a subset of calibration skills.
Good point, I hadn't thought of that.