gwern comments on 2014 Survey Results - Less Wrong

87 Post author: Yvain 05 January 2015 07:36PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (279)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 04 January 2015 10:43:12AM *  2 points [-]

I think one logical correlation following from the Simulation Argument is underappreciated in the correlations.

I spotted this in the uncorrelated data already:

  • P Supernatural: 6.68 + 20.271 (0, 0, 1) [1386]

  • P God: 8.26 + 21.088 (0, 0.01, 3) [1376]

  • P Simulation 24.31 + 28.2 (1, 10, 50) [1320]

Shouldn't evidence for simulations - and apparently the median belief is 10% for simulation - be evidence for Supernatural influences, for which there is 0% median belief (not even 0.01). After all a simulation implies a simulator and thus a more complex 'outer world' doing the simulation and thus disabling occams razor style arguments against gods.

Admittedly there is a small correlation:

  • P God/P Simulation .110 (1296)

Interestingly this is on the same order as

  • P Aliens/P Simulation .098 (1308)

but there is no correlation listed between P Aliens/P God. Thus my initial hypothesis that aliens running the simulation of gods being the argument behind the 0.11 correlation is invalid.

Note that I mentioned simulation as weak argument for theism earlier.

Comment author: gwern 05 January 2015 05:02:17AM 7 points [-]

Shouldn't evidence for simulations - and apparently the median belief is 10% for simulation - be evidence for Supernatural influences

A simulation is still a naturalistic non-supernatural thing, and it would just mean we see less of the universe than we thought we do. The question was, after all:

What is the probability that there is a god, defined as a supernatural intelligent entity who created the universe?

Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 05 January 2015 07:22:58AM 0 points [-]

See my answer to hairyfigment. Does that help?

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 05 January 2015 10:11:21PM 2 points [-]

I think you're looking at it backward. You are trying to understand what the implications of a survey response are. This is the explanation.

Your philosophical objection to the logic behind the explanation doesn't make it not the explanation.