Comment on 2014 Survey Results

Mon, 05 Jan 2015 10:28:49 GMT

Can someone who's done calibration training comment on whether it really seems to represent the ability to "judge how much evidence you have on a given issue", as opposed to accurately translate brain-based probability estimates in to numerical probability estimates?

As I interpret it, the two are distinct but calibration training does both. That is, there's both a "subjective feeling of certainty"->"probability number" model that's being trained, and that model probably ought to be trained for every field independently (that is, determining how much subjective feeling of certainty you should have in different cases). There appears to be some transfer but I don't think it's as much as Yvain seems to be postulating.

Discuss