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FrameBenignly comments on 2014 Survey Results - Less Wrong
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I think one logical correlation following from the Simulation Argument is underappreciated in the correlations.
I spotted this in the uncorrelated data already:
P Supernatural: 6.68 + 20.271 (0, 0, 1) [1386]
P God: 8.26 + 21.088 (0, 0.01, 3) [1376]
P Simulation 24.31 + 28.2 (1, 10, 50) [1320]
Shouldn't evidence for simulations - and apparently the median belief is 10% for simulation - be evidence for Supernatural influences, for which there is 0% median belief (not even 0.01). After all a simulation implies a simulator and thus a more complex 'outer world' doing the simulation and thus disabling occams razor style arguments against gods.
Admittedly there is a small correlation:
Interestingly this is on the same order as
but there is no correlation listed between P Aliens/P God. Thus my initial hypothesis that aliens running the simulation of gods being the argument behind the 0.11 correlation is invalid.
Note that I mentioned simulation as weak argument for theism earlier.
It depends on your definition of supernatural, and most people on LessWrong seem to have a very narrow definition of supernatural. I think Eliezer once wrote a post about it, but I don't believe he cited any references. Some definitions of supernatural would require many people on here to revise their estimate significantly upward. I took the lack of a definition to mean we should use any and all possible definitions of supernatural when considering the question, which is why I picked 100 percent. There's actually been a discussion on whether simulations imply God, and most answered no. I thought the reasoning some used for that was rather peculiar. That discussion of course didn't include any citations either.
You're thinking of this one, and he cited Carrier, and we have this argument after every survey. At this point it's a Tradition, and putting "ARGH LOOK JUST USE CARRIER'S DEFINITION" on the survey itself would just spoil it :)
Oh yeah, that one. I'd probably just get annoyed if they said to use Carrier since I hate that definition, so I guess the status quo works for me.