Vaniver comments on 2014 Survey Results - Less Wrong

87 Post author: Yvain 05 January 2015 07:36PM

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Comment author: Vaniver 07 January 2015 04:03:43PM 1 point [-]

I wonder what a better one would be?

The primary property you want to maintain with a scoring rule is that the best probability to provide is your true probability. I know that the Bayes score generalizes to multiple choice questions, which implies to me that it most likely works with a multiplicity for wrong answers, so long as the multiplicity is close to the actual multiplicity.

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 07 January 2015 08:39:33PM *  1 point [-]

I think the primary property you want to maintain is that it's best to provide the answer you consider most likely, otherwise it's best to say 'sdfkhasflk' - 0% to all of them you aren't certain of.

Multiple choice would making the scoring clearer, but that constraint could well make the calibration easier.