orthonormal comments on 2014 Survey Results - Less Wrong

87 Post author: Yvain 05 January 2015 07:36PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (279)

Sort By: Popular

You are viewing a single comment's thread.

Comment author: orthonormal 09 January 2015 02:00:09AM 6 points [-]

It looks to me like everyone was horrendously underconfident on all the easy questions, and horrendously overconfident on all the hard questions.

I think that this is what correct calibration overall looks like, since you don't know in advance which questions are easy and which ones are tricky. I would be quite impressed if a group of super-calibrators had correct calibration curves on every question, rather than on average over a set of questions.

Comment author: Douglas_Knight 12 February 2015 02:04:12AM 0 points [-]

Right, Dunning-Kruger is just regression to the mean.

Comment author: orthonormal 17 February 2015 01:42:13AM 0 points [-]

No, that's false. It's possible (and common) for a person to be wildly overconfident on a pretty broad domain of questions.