orthonormal comments on 2014 Survey Results - Less Wrong
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Comments (279)
I think that this is what correct calibration overall looks like, since you don't know in advance which questions are easy and which ones are tricky. I would be quite impressed if a group of super-calibrators had correct calibration curves on every question, rather than on average over a set of questions.
Right, Dunning-Kruger is just regression to the mean.
No, that's false. It's possible (and common) for a person to be wildly overconfident on a pretty broad domain of questions.