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buybuydandavis comments on 2014 Survey Results - Less Wrong
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Any correlation between digit ratios and gender default?
For the warming question, much of the difference between responses is likely due to differing judgments on what is "significant" as opposed to on what will/has been actually happening. I think it would be better to try to split these components. A first question could ask for example, how much do you think human influence (e.g. CO2 emitted due to human activity) has raised the temperature at the current moment (give a value that you think has a 50% chance of being above or below the correct value), also how much it will have raised the temperature in 2050 and 2100, this could be preceded by a graph showing temperature change due to all causes for the last 80 years or so, to provide a common anchor point. Then one or more additional questions could be aimed at how big a problem people think it is and how much they think should be done about it.
I remember being annoyed with this question, as I am annoyed with most "news" articles on "the debate", with gibberish such as "Climate denier". That's not even English.
"Significant" and "soon" are both a problem here.
I think your question overly complicates, as it's only one component of warming, "due to human activity". Just CO2? Greenhouse emissions? All the forests and herd animals ever killed? Transformation of species populations? Pollution?
How about what the average global temp will be in the 2050s, according to some existing instrumental measurement regime?