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Chris comments on Unbounded Scales, Huge Jury Awards, & Futurism - Less Wrong
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I strongly encourage any AI worker who hasn't already done so to read Ian McDonald's 'River of Gods'. He's pretty positive (in timescale terms...) on AI, his answer to the question "How long will it be until we have human-level AI?" is 2047 AD, and it's a totally gob-smacking, brilliant, read.
Is this the one you mean: River of gods ?
if so - it's a novel... and it includes aliens... I admit I haven't read it, but I'm skeptical as to how much you might deduce about AI's likelihood...