If this is correct then we should expect a reduction in Islamic terrorism but I'm not sure what the expected timeline for such a reduction would be.
we should expect a reduction in Islamic terrorism
On some time-scale, yes. But saying when is a bit of a sucker's game. To use the American example: are we still in the '60s or have we passed into the '70s yet or maybe even '80s?
I'd be more confident in predicting that both cults and violence are on a long-term secular decline in South Korea, which seems to be over the hump.
but I'm not sure what the expected timeline for such a reduction would be.
That's a little difficult to say. I think you could probably use per capita GDP to try to pin down when o...
Yesterday I was using the Global Terrorism Database to check some suprisingly low figures on what percentage of terrorist acts are committed by Muslims. (Short answer: Worldwide since 2000, about 80%, rather than 0.4 - 6% as given in various sources.) But I found some odd patterns in the data for the United States. Look at this chart of terrorist acts in the US which meet GTD criteria I-III and are listed as "unambiguous":