TrE comments on The guardian article on longevity research [link] - Less Wrong
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Comments (27)
I get ~ 1,400 years, as the "half life," but I see what Yun did. And that takes into account that 25 year olds have already gotten most of their risky behavior behind them. Your auto insurance rates dropped when you turned 25 for good empirical reasons.
Of course, these calculations don't mean anything because we don't have anywhere near enough of a baseline yet to make that sort of extrapolation plausible.
That's just not how the relevant model works. Unless there's very good reason to believe we can overcome the limits set by this model, this calculation is like saying
Although there are some arguments on why significant extension of lifespans might be possible, the relevant model is not even discussed, and thusly I don't think the arguments brought forth are good enough to warrant the claim that 1000 years are possible.
That's the entire point. The premise is, what if we were able to flat-line risk to be what a 25yo experiences rather than be a function of age.
Yes, that's rather the point? He's pointing out the implications of the Gompertz curve: that increases in age-related risk account for almost all of why we live such short lives.
Then he should give reasons why that's possible. As it is, it seems to me like he is simply ignoring the math behind ageing. The following would be a better argument, IMO:
Compare:
No, it wouldn't, because you are presupposing that one already understands why one would want to do such a difficult thing. The whole point of pointing out the implications of acceleration in mortality is to point out real mortality rates can imply very long lifespans and that squaring the curve would have major and desirable implications. Only once the potential benefits have been established does anyone care about how feasible fixing it would be. There are two blades to the idea of 'cost-benefit', and you are dismissing out of hand anyone even trying to roughly estimate the latter.
To use your atom example:
And someone else replying:
Go back to the original article. Why are they discussing aging at all? To justify research like Calico into reducing it.
Jeez. Talk about missing the point.