Heh. What's the odds of you having that winning lottery ticket?

50/50! Either I win, or I don't.

Seems like you're mostly saying that price-like things tend to return to an average price, then presenting a lot of evidence on why the price is low and likely to continue to be low, then claiming that it's therefore got to go up, because things return to their average price.

I have some bit-coin. It's still worth more than when I brought it. My best guess, as it was then, is that it'll be worth exactly zero in a decade or two.

Sounded like a lottery-ticket with expected-payout marginally better than the actual betting-odds offered.

Still does.

Lottery tickets don't generally win though, even if the pay out is better than the betting-odds. It's certainly not 50/50.