That's fair enouph. So long as it is remembered that it's a heuristic and is used to guide thinking rather than stop thinking it is certianly valuable.

Corollary: if you want to find investments with significantly higher than average expected values, look for structural reasons that a market might be inefficient, or reasons that many smart players might be making the same evaluation mistake.

Note that actually following the above as advice might be extremely hazardous: taken in a different light, it feels a lot like the advice "seek out confirmation bias".