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mwengler comments on Why you should consider buying Bitcoin right now (Jan 2015) if you have high risk tolerance - Less Wrong
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A little ambiguous. The total return to all miners halves every 4 years or so. If the total investment in mining equipment is doubling every 4 years, then the return to unit investment in mining will decrease by 75% every 4 years. Both the total rate of BTC creation and the increasing investment chasing that creation are decreasing the return to the mining investment.