= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
loldrup comments on Je suis Charlie - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (72)
You may be right. But is there no better methology for estimating priors than to say "surely this prior must be in the single digit percentages". It seems very method-less.
The method is "set your prior probability equal to society's judgement of its probability". For anything where society as a whole has an opinion at all, it's a better approximation than any other one-piece-of-evidence method around, and is thus a great way to set your priors.
As a general statement, this doesn't seem to be true. I am also not quite sure what -- in real life -- is a "one-piece-of-evidence method".