Caledonian2 comments on Superhero Bias - Less Wrong

41 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 01 December 2007 03:14AM

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Comment author: Caledonian2 02 December 2007 04:08:21PM 1 point [-]

Examples where some lives might have to be sacrificed is placebo groups for potentially life saving drugs. If you don't have the placebo group, the efficacy of the medicine cannot be known for certain, putting lives of many people potentially at risk. But those in the placebo group are goners, for sure. Correct me if I am wrong.

I do think you're wrong, Prakash. You're only looking at the case where the drug is actually better than the placebo. When it isn't helpful, or is harmful, the placebo group is better off than those receiving the drug.

And that's just the immediate situation. The long-term consequences of abolishing the placebo group and not understanding the true effects of the drug have to be considered as well. Since it's far easier to screw up than to get things right, a drug with unknown effectiveness and questionable effects will tend to cause far more harm than it ever prevents.