Artaxerxes comments on New, Brief Popular-Level Introduction to AI Risks and Superintelligence - Less Wrong
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This is probably a mistake in the article, because the 2040 median is most likely coming from this survey (www.nickbostrom.com/papers/survey.pdf), and specifically coming from when AI experts were asked what year they could be 50% sure of human level AI coming about. For comparison, the 90% interval was 2075, which paints a very different picture.
Edit: the author has fixed the phrasing on that line