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Adirian comments on Affective Death Spirals - Less Wrong

31 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 02 December 2007 04:44PM

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Comment author: Adirian 04 December 2007 01:21:40AM 0 points [-]

the fact that their agreement-about-observations was predictable in advance doesn't make it any less an agreement. (And if you're talking only about the parts of those theories that are "theories about the reasons why", bracketing all the agreements about what's observed and how to calculate it, then I don't think you are entitled to call the things that disagree completely "models for modern theoretical physics".)

- It renders that agreement meaningless. If you curve-fit seven points, and come up with a thousand different formulas, the fact that each of these thousand formulas includes each of those seven points produces exactly no additional information. The fact of the matter is that we have discarded every formula which DIDN'T describe those points - that the remaining formulas do describe them tells us absolutely nothing about either the points or the relative value of the formulas with respect to one another.

At best, out of N formulas, each has a 1/N chance of being correct. (At worst, none of the formulas is correct.)