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Nepene comments on I tried my hardest to win in an AI box experiment, and I failed. Here are the logs. - Less Wrong
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If you predict that there's a 20% chance of the AI destroying the world and an 80% chance of global warming destroying the world and there's a 100% chance the AI will stop global warming if released and unmolested then you are better off releasing the AI.
Or you can just give a person 6 points for achieving their goal and -20 points for releasing the AI. Even though the person knows rationally that the AI could destroy the world points matter more than that, and that strongly encourages people to try negotiating with the AI.