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anandjeyahar comments on Rationality Quotes Thread February 2015 - Less Wrong
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(I can't understand what an update could reasonably change. You aren't going to make the probability of any particular side more than 1/6, so what is the new probability?)
I don't know either. I can make up a scenario, based on a series of die throws, history of win-losses and guesses based on that, but that would simply be conjecture, and still may not produce a reasonable process. However, this discussion reminded me of a scene in HPMOR. (The scene where HP's critic part judges that Miss Camblebunker was not a Doctor, but an actor. (After Bellatrix is broken out of prison.))
My claim is that you can't come up with such a conjecture where it makes sense to change the probability away from 1/6. That is why you should not update.
I disagree. I'm not sure it's provable(maybe in professional poker players??), but if you've played the bet a lot of times, you could have come up with cues* about whether your friend has got the same roll(or number on the die) as the last time or not.
So you should update after you see that she rolled some number, and saw her reaction - but this says nothing about updating again because she wrote the number down,