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Baughn comments on Discussion of concrete near-to-middle term trends in AI - Less Wrong
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Any thoughts beyond the applications of NLP, computer vision, and robotics?
That's what I know most about. I could go into much more depth on any of them.
I think Go, the board game, will likely fall to the machines. The driving engine of advances will shift somewhat from academia to industry.
Basic statistical techniques are advancing, but not nearly as fast as these more downstream applications, partly because they're harder to put to work in industry. But in general we'll have substantially faster algorithms to solve many probabilistic inference problems, much the same way that convex programming solvers will be faster. But really, model specification has already become the bottleneck for many problems.
I think at the tail end of 10 years we might start to see the integration of NLP-derived techniques into computer program analysis. Simple prototypes of this are on the bleeding edge in academia, so it'll take a while. I don't know exactly what it would look like, beyond better bug identification.
What more specific things would you like thoughts on?
This is a sucker bet. I don't know if you've kept up to date, but AI techniques for Go-playing have advanced dramatically over the last couple of years, and they're rapidly catching up to the best human players. They've already passed the 1-dan mark.
Interestingly, from my reading this is by way of general techniques rather than writing programs that are terribly specialized to Go.
Advanced quickly for a while due to a complete change in algorithm, but then we seem to have hit a plateau again. It's still an enormous climb to world champion level. It's not obvious that this will be achieved.
Right - I agree that Go computers will beat human champions.
In a sense you're right that the techniques are general, but are they the general techniques that work specifically for Go, if you get what I'm saying. That is, would the produce similar improvements when applied to Chess or other games? I don't know but it's always something to ask.