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Punoxysm comments on Discussion of concrete near-to-middle term trends in AI - Less Wrong
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I've formalized your implied prediction for speech processing on Predictionbook here. Please let me know if that's a fair summary of your prediction. For your other statements I am not able to make them precise enough in obvious ways for using on Predictionbook. Are there more specific predictions you would like to make in those fields?
That's too strong. For instance, multi-person and high-noise environments will still have room for improvement. Unpopular languages will lag behind in development. I'd consider "solved' to mean that the speech-processing element of a Babelfish-like vocal translator would work seamlessly across many many languages and virtually all environments.
I'd say it will be just below the level of a trained stenographer with something like 80% probability, and "solved" (somewhat above that level in many different languages) with 30% probability.
With 98% probability it will be good enough that your phone won't make you repeat yourself 3 times for a simple damn request for directions.
Clarified version here.