So by the time this year's competition comes out it should be down to 3%!
I'm not sure ImageNet is of sufficiently high quality that a 3% error rate is meaningful. No point in overfitting noise in the supposed right labels. I think the take-away is that image recognition has gotten really good and now we need a new benchmark/corpus, possibly focused on the special-cases where humans still seem better.
Instead of prognosticating on AGI/Strong AI/Singularities, I'd like to discuss more concrete advancements to expect in the near-term in AI. I invite those who have an interest in AI to discuss predictions or interesting trends they've observed.
This discussion should be useful for anyone looking to research or work in companies involved in AI, and might guide longer-term predictions.
With that, here are my predictions for the next 5-10 years in AI. This is mostly straightforward extrapolation, so it won't excite those who know about these areas but may interest those who don't: