Epictetus comments on Innate Mathematical Ability - Less Wrong
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Intelligence seems to account for roughly 40% of the variance in the logarithms of mathematicians' research productivity, with the remainder accounted for by other innate abilities and environmental factors. This is consistent with most exceptionally intelligent mathematicians producing unremarkable math, and also (given the rarity of people with exceptional intelligence) consistent with some great mathematicians not being exceptionally intelligent. I'll write more about this later.
Nice to know there's still hope for the rest of us.