Sharing your prediction in this thread doesn't get others to share their own numbers. Predictionbook on the other hand usually does. It leads to communal prediction making.
It also gives you calibration statistics.
I often have domain-specific prediction techniques and would want to check my calibration for each technique (and each domain) as well as overall.
You could have a account for every prediction technique.
You could have a account for every prediction technique.
That seems like an excessive amount of work, especially once overlapping categories and domains come into play.
New chapter!
This is a new thread to discuss Eliezer Yudkowsky’s Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality and anything related to it. This thread is intended for discussing chapter 104.
There is a site dedicated to the story at hpmor.com, which is now the place to go to find the authors notes and all sorts of other goodies. AdeleneDawner has kept an archive of Author’s Notes. (This goes up to the notes for chapter 76, and is now not updating. The authors notes from chapter 77 onwards are on hpmor.com.)
Spoiler Warning: this thread is full of spoilers. With few exceptions, spoilers for MOR and canon are fair game to post, without warning or rot13. More specifically: