JoshuaZ comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, February 2015, chapters 105-107 - Less Wrong

6 Post author: b_sen 17 February 2015 01:17AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (353)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: JoshuaZ 19 February 2015 03:45:02AM 1 point [-]

This is a very interesting idea. What probability do you assign to it?

Comment author: Viliam_Bur 19 February 2015 09:41:55AM *  4 points [-]

It is too complicated, and also my knowledge of HPMOR is suboptimal. (I forgot many parts, didn't read it again, and I have read other fanfics meanwhile. Also in the discussions about HPMOR I regularly read insights that I have completely missed.)

"You know, boy," Professor Quirrell whispered, "I had thought... to teach you everything... the seeds of all the secrets I knew... from one living mind to another... so that later, when you found the right books, you would be able to understand... I would have passed on my knowledge to you, my heir... we would have begun as soon as you asked me... but you never asked."

This also contradicts my theory, unless Quirrell is planning to yet give Harry a last-minute ultra-compressed lesson.

By the way, how much human education is necessary to overcome the Interdict of Merlin? Because the students still have to study the books, don't they? Could teachers just give 1% in speech and let them learn the remaining 99% from books? Could Quirrell give Harry the 1% of everything in this final lesson? His flaunting of overpowered magic could be an introduction to this lesson. Also he made sure they have enough time.

Okay, here are a few silly numbers:

  • Quirrell is Riddle's non-destructive copy, Harry is the destructive copy -- 10%
  • Quirrell "wants" his body to be killed by Harry, without possessing Harry in turn -- 50%
  • there is a spell/curse/oath (other than prophecy) that forces Quirrell to decide suboptimally for his survival -- 10%
  • Quirrell could not kill Harry (with gun) and survive, if Harry now refused to obey him -- 30%
  • the mirror (or the room with the mirror) contains Riddle's memories -- 30%
  • Dumbledore suspects that Harry is Riddle, and expects him to reach the mirror -- 70%
Comment author: JoshuaZ 19 February 2015 02:01:32PM 4 points [-]

Those all sounds like reasonable estimates: too bad. I was hoping to possibly make a few quick bucks out of a conjunction fallacy bet. But given that it is you I shouldn't be surprised that the actual calibration level looks pretty sane.

Comment author: Viliam_Bur 20 February 2015 09:49:09AM 1 point [-]

I guess my time spent at the CFAR workshop wasn't completely wasted. :D