solipsist comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, February 2015, chapter 109 - Less Wrong
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I bet on option 1. I think Quirrell has been expecting Dumbledore to be hiding in the mirror. He said:
Quirrell could be lying, but Dumbledore being hidden near the stone seems reasonable too. Also Quirrell said (in parseltongue):
Appears before us. To me the verb appear evokes images, like in a mirror, more than running into people.