solipsist comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, February 2015, chapter 110 - Less Wrong

3 Post author: Gondolinian 24 February 2015 08:01PM

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Comment author: Astazha 25 February 2015 05:19:39PM *  0 points [-]

I've assumed this for a long while. "Dumbledore does things for no real reason but accidentally gets important long-range decisions right all the time" never made any sense. There were some other possible but unlikely explanations for the rock, but you add in his meddling in Lily's life and other times when he seems to be walking down a known, pre-determined path and it's just too much.

Dumbles is wading knee-deep through prophecies, always has been.

Comment author: solipsist 25 February 2015 05:31:48PM 0 points [-]

Could be prophecies, could be "patterns"

You start to see the pattern, hear the rhythm of the world. You begin to harbour suspicions before the moment of revelation.

And being mysterious at people, knowing things I have no way of knowing, making cryptic statements which can only be understood in hindsight, and all the other small ways in which powerful wizards amuse themselves after they have left the part of the pattern that allows them to be heroes.

"My stepparents aren't wicked!" blurted Harry. "My parents, I mean!"

"They aren't?" Dumbledore said, looking surprised and disappointed. "Not even a little wicked? That doesn't fit the pattern...”

Could be anthropic bias, could be that universes with magic have more measure if they make good stories, could be lots of stuff.

Comment author: Astazha 25 February 2015 05:46:21PM *  1 point [-]

I don't discount the patterns, but that isn't specific enough to be the whole story. How could Dumbledore know that it would be important for Petunia to be pretty? It could just as easily have been that prettiness would land her a life of trophy wife with an abusive rich guy. Dumble would have to already know that she would take care of a significant person, and that the fork of her life where she's pretty produces better results from that child. Patterns aren't enough for that, you know?

ETA: It doesn't have to be prophecy, exactly, but the guy has future knowledge from much more than 6 hours ahead, and prophecy is all we know about that can do that.

Edited again to change "give birth to" into "take care of".

Comment author: ChristianKl 25 February 2015 06:00:00PM 0 points [-]

How could Dumbledore know that it would be important for Petunia to be pretty?

It seems like the centaur proclaimed that giving Petunia the beauty portion will end the world.

Comment author: Astazha 25 February 2015 06:21:14PM 0 points [-]

Agreed, but how does that alone make Dumbledore decide it's a good idea?

Plus, Dumbledore doesn't want to take Harry to the hall to hear his own prophecy, and this is most likely because he knows there are other prophecies that Harry would hear. And he never actually confirms that he got his information from James and Lily, Harry comes up with this and Dumbledore let's him believe it. I think Dumbledore had other access.

"The Hall of Prophecy," Albus confirmed lowly. "Those who are spoken of in a prophecy, may listen to that prophecy there. Do you see the implication, Harry?"

Harry frowned. "Well, I could listen to it, or the Dark Lord... oh, my parents. Those who had thrice defied him. They were also mentioned in the prophecy, so they could hear the recording?"

"If James and Lily heard anything different from what Minerva reported," Albus said evenly, "they did not say so to me."

"You took James and Lily there? " Minerva said.

"Fawkes can go to many places," Albus said. "Do not mention the fact."

Harry was staring directly at Albus. "Can I go to this Department of Mysteries place and hear the recorded prophecy? The original tone of voice might be helpful, from what I've heard."

Light glinted from the reflection of Albus's half-moon glasses as the old wizard slowly shook his head. "I think that would be unwise," Albus said. "For reasons beyond the obvious. It is dangerous, that place which Merlin made; more dangerous to some people than others."

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