Comment on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, February 2015, chapter 111

Wed, 25 Feb 2015 19:57:03 GMT

If your prediction is lower than 50%, what you're really saying is, "Of all the hypotheses I that have been elevated to my attention, this one is most likely; however, I am so uncertain that I am more likely to be wrong than right."

Or in other words, to paraphrase Eliezer, I'm fairly sure that random person's name isn't Klein, but I'm very sure it's not Ktlzybplq.

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