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linkhyrule5 comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, February 2015, chapter 111 - Less Wrong
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Hm... this isn't a dig at you or anything, just a thought I'm having trouble answering for myself right now, but how low does one get to set the probability of a prediction, and still call it a prediction? At which point - seems it's not 50% - should you rather say "I'm predicting this won't happen?"
If your prediction is lower than 50%, what you're really saying is, "Of all the hypotheses I that have been elevated to my attention, this one is most likely; however, I am so uncertain that I am more likely to be wrong than right."
Or in other words, to paraphrase Eliezer, I'm fairly sure that random person's name isn't Klein, but I'm very sure it's not Ktlzybplq.
I've spent too long on LW, I think - I saw "Ktlzybplq" and assumed it was rot13.
It's almost Mxyzptlk.