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ChristianKl comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, February 2015, chapter 111 - Less Wrong
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Hm... this isn't a dig at you or anything, just a thought I'm having trouble answering for myself right now, but how low does one get to set the probability of a prediction, and still call it a prediction? At which point - seems it's not 50% - should you rather say "I'm predicting this won't happen?"
It's useful to be able to simply focus on probability values it makes things less complicated than always having to shift when the probability goes beyond 50%.